XRP whales are moving tokens off exchanges at a pace not seen in months, and on-chain analysts are taking notice. According to CryptoQuant data highlighted this week, whale-sized withdrawals — transfers exceeding 1 million XRP — surged from roughly 10% of Coinbase’s total XRP outflow value on June 16 to 25.7% by July 1, per The Crypto Basic. At the same time, roughly 228 million XRP has drained from the tracked reserves of Binance and Upbit, pushing both exchanges to multi-month lows, as reported by Live Bitcoin News. The exchange exodus arrives as the XRP price hovers near $1.06 and presses against overhead resistance around $1.09, while Ripple’s RLUSD stablecoin has reportedly powered more than $2.5 billion in XRP Ledger settlement volume. Here is what the data shows — and what it does not.

Whale-Sized Withdrawals Hit 26% of Coinbase XRP Outflows

The most striking data point in the current flow picture comes from Coinbase. According to CryptoQuant analyst Amr Taha, whose findings were covered by The Crypto Basic, transfers of more than 1 million XRP accounted for about 10% of Coinbase’s total XRP outflow value on June 16. By July 1, that share had jumped to 25.7% — meaning that in the span of roughly two weeks, whale-sized transactions went from a modest slice of Coinbase’s XRP outflows to more than a quarter of them.

That shift matters because of what Coinbase represents in the market structure. The exchange is widely regarded as a primary venue for US-based institutional and high-net-worth participants, so a sudden concentration of large withdrawals there is often read as a signal that bigger players — not retail traders — are driving the flows. Crypto Economy characterized the pattern as consistent with aggressive whale accumulation, noting that large XRP outflows from Coinbase have historically coincided with periods when major holders reposition ahead of anticipated volatility.

Interestingly, the same analysis found that Binance showed a very different profile. Whale withdrawals on Binance held near 49.6% of total XRP outflows — a consistently high but stable share, suggesting what analysts described as steadier, institutional-style flow behavior rather than a sudden change in posture. In other words, XRP whales appear to have been persistently active on Binance for some time, while the Coinbase spike represents a newer and more abrupt development.

Why the venue distinction matters

Flow analysts tend to treat the two patterns differently. A stable whale share of outflows, as seen on Binance, can reflect routine treasury management, market-making operations, or ongoing over-the-counter settlement. A rapid change in the whale share — the kind Coinbase just registered — more often points to a discrete shift in behavior: a cohort of large holders deciding, within a narrow window, to move coins into self-custody or private settlement channels. Neither reading is guaranteed to be correct, but the divergence between the two exchanges is one reason this particular data set has drawn attention across crypto media this week.

228 Million XRP Leaves Binance and Upbit as Reserves Hit Multi-Month Lows

The Coinbase whale data does not exist in a vacuum. Exchange reserve figures show a broader drawdown across two of the largest XRP trading venues in the world. According to reserve data cited by COINOTAG and Bitcoin World, Binance’s XRP balance fell from roughly 2.78 billion XRP on May 12 to about 2.61 billion XRP by July 2 — a decline of approximately 170 million tokens, or more than 6% of the exchange’s tracked holdings. That leaves Binance’s XRP reserve at its lowest level since March 2026.

Upbit, the dominant South Korean exchange and one of the largest XRP venues globally by volume, saw its balance drop from about 6.515 billion XRP on May 30 to roughly 6.457 billion XRP on July 2 — a decline of around 58 million tokens, marking its lowest reserve level since April 2026. Combined, the two exchanges have shed approximately 228 million XRP from tracked reserves during the recent drawdown, per Live Bitcoin News.

At current prices near $1.06, 228 million XRP represents roughly $240 million in nominal value leaving the order books of two systemically important venues. Reporting from Bitcoin World noted that large holders reportedly drove most of the Binance outflows during this period, reinforcing the interpretation that XRP whales — rather than a broad base of smaller holders — are behind the reserve decline.

What falling reserves do and don’t tell us

The standard bullish reading is straightforward: when tokens leave exchanges, the immediately sellable supply shrinks, and any future demand shock meets a thinner order book. But analysts quoted in the coverage were careful to add caveats. As The Crypto Basic noted, tokens leaving tracked reserves may be moving to private wallets, shifting between exchanges, or migrating into custody arrangements that simply are not captured by the same wallet labels. Lower reserves reduce visible liquidity, but they are not, on their own, proof of long-term accumulation — and they are certainly not a guaranteed bullish signal. That distinction is worth keeping in mind as the narrative around XRP whales builds.

XRP Price Holds Near $1.06 and Tests the $1.09 Resistance Zone

The whale activity is unfolding against a technically fragile price backdrop. The XRP price has been trading around $1.05 to $1.06 in recent sessions, with intraday ranges spanning roughly $1.045 to $1.069, according to analysis compiled by MEXC News. Some feeds have printed as high as $1.09 on short-term bounces, but the falling resistance band between roughly $1.08 and $1.10 has repeatedly capped rallies — making $1.09 the immediate line in the sand for bulls.

The bigger picture remains a short-term downtrend. As Blockonomi observed, XRP lost several support levels during June that traders had previously considered secure, and the token has been carving out lower highs and lower lows just above the psychological $1 floor. Crypto.news framed the same setup as a question of whether the $1 support can hold as ETF inflows slow, describing the market as stuck between a firm $1 floor and heavier resistance overhead in the $1.18 to $1.20 region.

There are, however, constructive signals beneath the surface. Analysts cited by The Crypto Times point out that trading volume has been contracting — a pattern that frequently precedes a decisive directional move — while momentum indicators have begun to stabilize and declining open interest suggests the market is less crowded and less leveraged than it was earlier in the quarter. Coinpaper noted that the exchange outflows are coinciding with a tightening triangle structure on the chart, a formation that typically resolves with an expansion in volatility, in one direction or the other.

For July as a whole, forecasters surveyed by Coinpedia estimate an average price of about $1.11 for the month, with a projected floor near $1.02 and a potential peak around $1.19 — a range that essentially brackets the current battle between the $1 support and the $1.09 resistance.

RLUSD Drives Over $2.5 Billion in XRP Ledger Settlement Volume

While traders parse exchange flows, the fundamental story on the XRP Ledger has been gathering its own momentum. Research published on June 30 by Evernorth, the Ripple-backed treasury firm, found that activity tied to Ripple’s RLUSD stablecoin has generated more than $2.5 billion in settlement volume on the XRPL, with RLUSD/XRP trading volume approaching $900 million, according to crypto.news and Bitcoinist.

The growth curve behind those headline numbers is steep. Per the Evernorth data covered by CoinGape, monthly RLUSD-related transactions on the ledger climbed from about 54,000 in December 2024 to between 600,000 and 1.1 million per month in 2026. RLUSD supply hosted on the XRPL grew from roughly $20 million at the end of 2024 to approximately $800 million by late June 2026, making the XRP Ledger the largest network for the stablecoin at around 51% of total supply — up from about 17% as recently as April. Direct RLUSD payments on the ledger expanded from about $68 million in December 2024 to approximately $5.08 billion in May 2026.

Crucially for XRP holders, Evernorth’s on-chain analysis pushed back on the idea that the stablecoin cannibalizes demand for the native token. As The Crypto Basic reported, the data indicates RLUSD growth is boosting XRP activity rather than replacing it — RLUSD/XRP has become one of the ledger’s most active trading pairs, deepening on-ledger liquidity in which XRP serves as the bridge and counter-asset. It is worth noting the sourcing here: these figures come from Evernorth, a Ripple-backed research effort, rather than an independent auditor, so they carry the usual caveat that attaches to ecosystem-affiliated data.

Why XRP Whales May Be Positioning Now

Put the threads together and a coherent — if unproven — thesis emerges for why XRP whales are pulling coins off exchanges at this particular moment. First, the price is compressed near a well-defended floor. Accumulating near $1 support, with defined downside risk, is a classic large-holder pattern, and Crypto Economy explicitly framed the Coinbase outflows in those terms.

Second, the fundamental backdrop is arguably improving faster than the price. The RLUSD settlement milestone gives institutional allocators a concrete, measurable utility narrative for the XRPL at exactly the moment the XRP price sits near multi-month lows — a divergence that value-oriented large holders tend to exploit.

Third, there is a regulatory catalyst on the calendar. As The Crypto Times reported, the CLARITY Act — legislation that would classify XRP as a commodity under US federal law — remains the single biggest overhang for the token. A Senate vote originally expected around July 4 has slipped, with lawmakers now more likely to act in late July or early August. Large holders positioning ahead of a binary legislative event would be consistent with the flow data, though it is impossible to verify intent from on-chain movements alone.

Skeptics can counter each point. Exchange-to-cold-storage transfers can reflect security practice rather than conviction. Whale accumulation has preceded both rallies and further declines in XRP’s history. And as multiple outlets cautioned, reserve declines can overstate the story when coins simply move to venues or custodians outside the tracked wallet set. The honest summary is that the behavior of XRP whales is consistent with accumulation, but consistency is not confirmation.

Key Levels and Signals to Watch From Here

For traders and observers tracking whether the whale thesis plays out, several markers stand out from the current reporting:

• The $1.09–$1.10 resistance band. A daily close above this falling resistance would be the first technical confirmation that accumulation is translating into price strength, per MEXC News. Above that, the $1.18–$1.20 supply zone flagged by crypto.news is the larger hurdle.
• The $1.00–$1.02 floor. A decisive break below the psychological $1 level would invalidate the near-term accumulation setup and expose the token to the lower bound of forecast ranges.
• Whale share of Coinbase outflows. Whether the 25.7% figure keeps climbing, plateaus, or mean-reverts back toward 10% will indicate if the early-July surge was a one-off repositioning or the start of a sustained campaign by XRP whales.
• Binance and Upbit reserve trajectories. Continued declines below the March and April lows would extend the supply-tightening narrative; a rebound in reserves would suggest coins are rotating back toward sell-side venues.
• RLUSD supply and settlement growth. Follow-through beyond the $2.5 billion settlement milestone and $800 million supply level would strengthen the utility case that underpins the longer-term thesis.
• The CLARITY Act timeline. Any firm scheduling of the Senate vote in late July or early August is likely to become the dominant near-term catalyst for the XRP price.

Conclusion: A Supply Squeeze in the Making, With Caveats

The picture painted by this week’s data is one of quiet but unmistakable repositioning by XRP whales. A jump in whale-sized withdrawals to 26% of Coinbase’s XRP outflows, a combined 228 million XRP drained from Binance and Upbit, and multi-month reserve lows on both venues all point in the same direction: large holders are reducing the token’s immediately available supply while the XRP price consolidates just above $1. Layer on the RLUSD-driven $2.5 billion settlement milestone on the XRP Ledger, and the accumulation thesis has more fundamental support than it did a quarter ago.

Still, restraint is warranted. Exchange-flow data is suggestive, not dispositive — coins leaving tracked reserves are not automatically locked away, and whales have been wrong before. The technical structure remains a downtrend until the $1.09 resistance breaks, ETF inflows have slowed, and the CLARITY Act’s slipped timeline injects genuine two-way risk into the weeks ahead. If the legislative outcome disappoints or Bitcoin weakens, the same thin order books that amplify rallies can amplify declines. For now, the most defensible read is conditional: XRP whales are positioning as though they expect the $1 floor to hold and the story to improve — and the market will find out over the coming weeks whether that bet, near $1.06 today, was placed at the right price.